Resolves YES if the Democratic nominee (presumably Kamala Harris) for POTUS wins the popular vote in a state that Donald Trump won in 2020, and does not win the popular vote in North Carolina. Resolves NO otherwise. This excludes districts which award their electoral vote separately from how their state votes, i.e. ME 2. Which states Kamala Harris has won will be determined using the same method used by the Manifold Politics account, i.e.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.

(Except replace "Republican Party candidate" with "Democratic Party candidate")

I may bet on this market.

Base rates can be found here: