Will I see a coconut before Kamala Harris is elected president?
Basic
5
Ṁ135
2029
84%
chance

Must be a real, whole coconut. I will not seek out or avoid coconuts specifically for this market. I will not bet on this market.

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Ṁ1,000
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S3.00
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This market is gonna be open forever lol

Does Harris need to be elected for this to resolve yes?

If you see a coconut, how likely are you to notice it and remember to resolve this market?

@AndrewMaxwell
Harris needs to be elected POTUS for this to resolve yes. If Harris is not elected this year, this will stay open until she is elected, or I see a coconut. (Probably the later)
if I recognize that it's a coconut, I think it's pretty likely that I'll remember. But I also think there's a decent chance I wouldn't register that something is a coconut if I only look at it briefly.

@Nightsquared your first two statements seem to be at odds with each other. If Harris needs to be elected for it to be resolved yes, then seeing a coconut won't be sufficient to resolve the market (unless she dies or something.)

@AndrewMaxwell sorry, I got the sides mixed up-Harris being elected first resolves this no. Seeing a coconut first resolves it yes. (Regardless of what has happened or will happen with Harris)

bought Ṁ5 YES

Finally we get to trade on some really important questions!

Where do you live?

Not in a place that naturally has coconuts

(At least, to my knowledge)

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