Update: RFK Jr dropped out at 2:21 PM EDT on Friday, 8/23, at which time the linked market was at 55% for dems. This market will close at 2:21 PM EDT on 8/30. See comments for more details.
Some have speculated that RFK Jr is currently helping Harris more than Trump. If true, RFK Jr dropping out would presumably be bad for Harris.
If RFK Jr drops out of the race at least a week before the election, after a week, this market will resolve to the range containing the value of ("Democratic Party" a week after dropout) - ("Democratic Party" at time of dropout), based on the following market:
For example, if RFK Jr drops out on Oct 12, and "Democratic Party" is at 60% at that time, and on Oct 19 "Democratic Party" is at 53%, this would resolve to "Democratic Party < -5% to ≥ -10%". If on Oct 19 "Democratic Party" was instead at 65%, this would resolve to "Democratic Party ≥ +5% to < +10%".
If RFK Jr does not drop out before Oct 29, this will resolve to "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will not drop out of the race"
If it matters, the exact timing of when RFK Jr drops out will be when a major U.S. news organization (under "Major outlets" in this wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_media_in_the_United_States) first reports on him dropping out, unless there is some clear reason not to use this time (i.e. him dropping out is not reported on by a major news organization/only reported on well after it happens, or the reporting from a major news organization is wrong/inconclusive)
I will not bet on this market.
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@Nightsquared i see. I think due to possible outcome manipulation and vagueness of when exactly he dropped out, you could take the average over at least a few hours. Idk if that would be favorable for me but I'm just thinking I hope you didn't just read the value at one moment
@GregMister in retrospect that would probably be better, but it's not the resolution criteria I described. FWIW I don't think outcome manipulation happened, because the people who profited on this market do not appear to have bet on the other market in the hours leading up to this market closing.
The earliest article saying RFK had suspended his campaign I could find is this one:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/robert-kennedy-jr-drops-out-race-rfk_n_66c8a588e4b0b61af203a6b3
Unless there are any objections, I'll set the drop-out time to 2:21 PM EDT, at which time "Democratic Party" was at 55%.