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Why was there so much activity driving things near/to 0% just before/after midnight (EDT) most days?

It seems more tightly focused than the full potential resolution window of 9-midnight

there were large limit orders that weren't being fought against, so 90%+ of the time was spent with one option being lowest. So it was somewhat reasonable during that period to bet an option down to 10% or less

Also, the random numbers were unusually concentrated towards the later times

Original time number generation

This market has to have one of the highest volume:liquidity ratios ever

I feel like I need more of an explanation on how Manifold is computing the probabilities. Intuitively, it seems like they should be moving way less than they do. For example, there's something like half a million mana in Cow, with more on the no side, and yet a 50 mana bet can move the market 10%. Veterans, is there a simple explanation for this that I'm missing?

So liquidity and the # of shares people hold are actually entirely separate. Like, they're kinda implicitly correlated because it is typically difficult to have huge trading volume without high liquidity, but using limit orders (or just constantly betting back & forth) there's no direct connection.

the TL;DR is that the market creator (or others) subsidize the market by paying an ante. this is the liquidity, a set of YES & NO shares (for a typical basic market it's 1000/1000). these are handed to the AMM (automated market maker). when someone wants to place a bet, they are buying shares from the AMM.

the key point is the liquidity used by the AMM is totally separate from how many shares manifold users hold in the market. i could fill a 100k limit order and the AMM wouldn't even be involved at all. but the next time someone trades, if there aren't limit orders up, the sensitivity of the price is entirely about the AMM.

you can find more math details here: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Maniswap-ce406e1e897d417cbd491071ea8a0c39 . except note that despite the doc proclaiming the greatness & flexibility of maniswap, independent MC are actually just the original simpler uniswap, with p=0.5 always.

if you're curious, when i check the liquidity pools for the remaining options, here's what i see atm:

+--------+------------+-----------+
| animal | yes_shares | no_shares |
+--------+------------+-----------+
| Donkey |      211.4 |     264.2 |
+--------+------------+-----------+
| Rat    |      210.7 |     248.2 |
+--------+------------+-----------+
| Cow    |      233.2 |     262.8 |
+--------+------------+-----------+
| Cat    |      252.8 |     238.5 |
+--------+------------+-----------+

not many shares to work with! so if i try to buy even 100M in YES, the AMM has to move the price a bunch because it doesn't have many shares to sell. in this market, most of the work is being done by limit orders, so people can assemble giant positions. but even if earlier i bought 100,000 YES shares, that has no bearing on how much buying YES now will move the price.

Also, it used to be the case that Manifold would add some liquidity to the market for every new trader. So, large markets with lots of traders and volume used to get more liquidity automatically and were harder to “move” to a different price. This doesn’t happen anymore, so the liquidity in this market will stay low unless someone spends mana to manually add more.

This may just be confirmation bias speaking, but it seems like people are playing much more conservatively since the market went unlisted. Which is the right call! But makes it tougher to make easy money :)

note that this market has added ~20 traders since it went unlisted

Four remaining options and 50% prob on each. Natural prob is 25% can someone explain why betting no on everything is a bad strategy?

2 options resolve yes

since 2 will resolve YES, the total is 200%, so if everything were treated equally the anchor point is currently 50%.

ofc there are more ways to look at this: each has a 75% chance of making it to the next round, but bets are about final outcome, so 3 of them have a 66% chance of getting to the end. since we don't know which of the 4 will get to the last round each has:

• 75% chance of surviving now x 66% chance of surviving the next round = 50% chance

but again it's not actually so cut and dry. the real odds are based on the behavior of players. some of these have a ton more motivated parties to get them to YES or NO, and there's no telling who will time their plays better

tldr I did not read the question 🥸

The duality of man(ifold)

Cat cat cat cat

(removed by author)

Jfc lmao

make this the next prize market?

1.4 million trading volume is crazy, I remember the good old days of betting down each option to arb it

fond memories ... how time flies