This is the market:

https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-austins-in-defense-of-sbf-have?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u

Will @Austin’s ‘In defense of SBF’ have aged well? [resolves to poll]

31% chance. Will this post by @Austin have aged well? https://manifold.markets/post/in-defense-of-sbf [link preview]Resolution On November 11, 2023 I will close this market and post a poll asking Manifold users this simple question: "Has 'In defense of SBF' by @Austin aged well?" I will leave the poll open for two weeks and then resolve according to the percentage of YES answers.

Will resolve according to my subjective feeling of regret (PROB) on close date.

Things that could make me regret it:

• it becomes clear that Austin will never give me a trustworthy-ish badge because of that market

• backlash (whether justified or not)

• resolution is controversial

• it becomes obvious that SBF did not commit fraud

Things that would not make me regret it:

• people reasonably disagreeing with me (my position is: it hasn't aged well at all)

• few people bet on the question or answer the poll

• I never get the badge for reasons unrelated to that market

• I lose interest in the question