(Don’t bet; see duplicate) Will I have zero alcoholic drinks in 2023?
resolved Apr 9

I went nearly sober on January 1, 2022, cutting regular alcohol consumption (5-10 weekly drinks on average) down to nearly zero except for a few occasional drinks at birthdays, romantic dinners, or special celebrations. I may have had a dozen drinks max in 2022—a few beers, some bubbly, and some wine, no liquor. Still, not technically sober.

I plan on going fully sober onwards and having no alcoholic drinks in the foreseeable future. I was also recently selected to be an Ambassador for the Athletic Brewing Company, the leading NA beer maker.

Will I honor my commitment?

Note 1: does not resolve to NO if I ingest alcohol by force or accident. I will only count intentional drinking.

Note 2: I have never considered myself an alcoholic, though I believe my alcohol consumption was trending upwards during the pandemic and, though probably not above average, was still excessive by the standards I hold.

Note 3: I really enjoy good beer, wine, and liquor. My commitment is independent of a distaste for alcoholic beverages.

Note 4: my last drink was on my birthday, October 16, 2022

Apr 9, 1:27pm: Will I have zero alcoholic drinks in 2023? → (Don’t bet; see duplicate) Will I have zero alcoholic drinks in 2023?

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My account has gone back to normal 🙌

predicted YES

Anybody objects to a NA resolution to address the issue discussed in the comments? I’ll duplicate the market right away.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon No objections from me

predicted NO

@NicoDelon okay, I took my screencaps, go for it.

predicted YES

@Botlab How did that happen?

@NicoDelon Just some weird side effects if the bug I think. I think your good to resolve to N/A

predicted NO

@NicoDelon When Manifold took 33,000 mana out of @eclair4151 's account to fund that incorrect bet, my bot was the first trader to bet NO against eclair at 1000:1 odds

My friend has also made a market on the outcome of my account if anyone is interested 😛


This market might be worth duplicating and NA'ing to reverse the bugged transaction... since nobody else has a large position.

predicted NO

@Mira Nooooooooo 😭 Keep it up and make the Manifold team comp @eclair4151 the bugged losses.

@Botlab lol hoping for that 150,000 payout 🤪

predicted YES

@eclair4151 @Mira I’m canceling and duplicating the market unless there are objections?

@NicoDelon I’m fine with that

Uh what... Happened here?

uhh… @eclair4151 how did you do that

@DylanSlagh App totally glitches out while selling shares. Now my account says i have -32000Ṁ some sort of bug maybe someone can report it to an admit to get this question and my account fixed?

@eclair4151 I'll see if I can get someones attention on discord

@DylanSlagh Much appreciated. I tried reaching out to them on Twitter too.

predicted NO

@eclair4151 This is the first time I've ever seen this bug.

@DylanSlagh Wow. I’ve no idea what happened.

May I ask why you want to stop completely, when drinking very rarely worked out fine?

predicted YES

@kottsiek Sure. That's a good question. I guess it's largely a matter of being able to say I don't drink, period, rather than the half-assed answer that I normally don't drink.

Another thing is, I suspect, my desire to drink alcohol will wane over time just like my desire for meat and animal products has waned after years of being vegan (though I'll tolerate the occasional, non-essential dairy/egg ingredients once in a while).

Finally, I sort of like the idea of approaching a partial set of straight-edge values (I don't endorse them all, but I'm increasingly fond of the no drugs/no drinking aspect, especially combined with veganism).

None of that is dispositive, but it's how I currently feel and it's leading me to think I just don't need any booze.

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