Will Javier Milei win the 2023 Argentinian presidential election?
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resolved Nov 19
Resolved
YES

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predicted NO

🥴

predicted NO

Bad news for us Catholics 😭

predicted NO

@TiredCliche Why is that?

predicted NO

@JaimeSantaCruz Strongly against Catholic social teaching, recently referred to the Pope as "always on the side of evil"

https://www.ncronline.org/news/argentinas-election-catholics-arent-hiding-dislike-far-right-candidate-milei

predicted NO

@TiredCliche Thanks. I think Cristina K wasn’t catholic friendly either but I don’t see any real action taken against Catholics coming to be honest. We’ve had two or three atheist / agnostic presidents in Chile and other than slightly advancing abortion not much has happened other than the Catholic Church digging its own grave and losing almost all influence in the last 15 years.

predicted NO

@JaimeSantaCruz What I mean to say is that Latin America is culturally Christian, if not Catholic, and most politicians will not kick that wasp hive.

predicted NO

@TiredCliche You will get this “the pope is a communist” opinion from almost everybody here; it’s just that Milei keeps saying the quiet part loud.

wow did this market seriously get no attention from anybody after the first round?

predicted YES

@dittopoop I haven’t been following this too closely but this market has always been very close to the real money markets. I doubt it was too far from the true probability

predicted YES

@dittopoop I bought a little yes after the most recent Atlas Intel poll. Honestly think they’re the best pollster in the world at this point, they romped in the 2020 US election too

@MarkHamill Look at the probability. It's at 62%! The other Argentinian election market traded at 99% before it was resolved. It seemed like this market specifically just flew under everybody's radar.

predicted YES

@dittopoop this market closed early, so it’s unfair to compare it to a market which ran until it could be at 99 percent

predicted YES

Massa has conceded

predicted NO

Exit poll results can be shared from 6:00 PM, and official results will be broadcast starting at 9:00 PM. (Argentina local time, UTC-3)

predicted NO

Why is this market closed if the ballotage is still ongoing?

@NickHeinonen Should this still be open?

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel Yes it should!

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Placed a limit order for 2k Yes at 53 (so you could buy slight more than 2k No at 47)

sold Ṁ820 of YES
predicted YES

@Joghn that president milei may live forever!

predicted YES
bought Ṁ25 of YES

@adssx I'm going half-kelly on Atlas

predicted YES

@MP Among the four recent polls (including Atlas Intel), three give Milei as the winner: https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Encuestas_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_presidenciales_de_Argentina_de_2023#Tras_la_primera_vuelta_y_las_elecciones_primarias

The only pollster giving Massa as the winner is Analogías, but they have 12% of "Indecisos" (3x more than other pollsters).

predicted YES

Note that most of those polls are online, and online users are much more likely to favor Milei than Massa. Polling agencies are likely adjusting for this effect, so I don't think one should necessarily infer a bias in favor of Milei, but it probably adds a lot of noise, making polling data less reliable. This may in part explain why the polls performed so poorly in both the primary and the general elections. This may also provide a reason for looking less at the poll aggregates and more at “longitudinal” poll data from a single agency. E.g. it seems striking that Analogías now says the gap between Massa and Milei is a mere 2.7 percentage points, when that same firm said it was 8.1 a week or so ago, or that, even more strikingly, Proyección Consultores says Milei is ahead of Massa by 1.7 points when it said Massa was ahead of Milei by 10.4 points. It doesn't appear to me that these changes result from a change in polling methodology, since they all took place after the general elections (when I would expect the polling firms to recalibrate their weights in response to the election results).

predicted YES

@Oxoniensis Excellent comment; thanks a lot for taking the time to write this!

predicted YES

@Oxoniensis well, Atlas is online and they were the only ones to put Massa ahead of Milei.

Online is more likely to get better results these days because increasingly people aren't replying to phone calls.

And obviously, after the general, you can adjust the data based on who you voted in primeira vuelta. If you open Atlas' PDF, they disclose Massa V. Milei for each relevant demography. The main isso is that Schiaretti voters aren't flowing to Massa. Many of them don't plan to vote, some will vote for Milei, and just like 40% are goint to Massa. Kn the other hand, Bullrich voters are flowing to Milei nicely.