This is a bet that both humanity will be extinct by 2800 and that AI will be the thing that does it

I don't think it should even be close to 50%.

Even conditional on humanity going extinct, the probability that the cause is AI shouldn't be more than 30%, right??

How will this even be resolved? It's kind of paradoxical, unless the AI resolves this prediction once everyone is dead, but I doubt that will happen. I also heavily doubt that manifold will even be a thing in the year 2800.

Couldn’t agree more! That is 776 (775 1/2) years from now! Think about 776 years ago. Look at what the world was like 776 years ago, considering the year 2024 minus 776:

2024−776=1248

Around 1248 AD, several significant events occurred:

1. Mongol Empire: The Mongol Empire, led by Genghis Khan and later his descendants, continued its expansion across Asia and Europe during this period.

2. Medieval Europe: In Europe, the High Middle Ages were in full swing. Gothic architecture flourished, and universities were established in cities like Paris and Oxford.

3. Song Dynasty in China: The Southern Song Dynasty was ruling in China, known for its cultural achievements, technological advancements, and trade along the Silk Road.

4. Era of the Crusades: The Seventh Crusade, led by King Louis IX of France, took place around 1248, aiming to recapture Jerusalem from Muslim control.

Plus who will collect your Mana if you win?

Either bet is simply throwing Mana away, right?