1/9/23 Edit: So this is explicit, the question deals with the long term. This question is unlikely to resolve within the next few years.

"Significantly" is obviously doing some heavy lifting here. p<.05 isn't going to cut it.

I'm throwing in m500 liquidity to get this started. This might be a perpetual market if there continues to be significant disagreements between reasonable minds. If the odds sit below 2% or above 98% for a significant amount of time then I will resolve the market.

See Isaac King's market on whether COVID-19 came from a lab for equivalent depth of evidence/agreement necessary to resolve, and I will similarly have extensive discussion with bettors prior to any resolution.