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MANIFOLD
Will the 120th Congress refuse to seat any members due to a redistricting related dispute?
2
Ṁ1kṀ520
2027
30%
chance

Some commentators have suggested that either Republican House members could vote to refuse to seat newly elected representatives from states that did *not* redistrict in response to the Callais decision, or Democrats could vote to refuse to seat representatives from states that did redistrict. This question resolves YES if and only if a dispute over the legitimacy of a state's district drawing results in at least one representative who wins a Congressional election in November 2026 being unable to take their seat in the 120th Congress by February 1, 2027.

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