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What a farce this market was never unresolved

Didn't they just release him on Friday? He's staying with his brother "where the judge said he’s allowed to live under a series of conditions." This is definitely not incarceration.

"Abrego is en route to his family in Maryland, Sean Hecker, one of his attorneys, said."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/kilmar-abrego-garcia-released-federal-prison-rcna226511

@cmiles74 he is not free to move about the country, so no.

@Jessef0226 I think you may be splitting hairs on this one. The details of the negotiations between he, his lawyer, and the state are not all public. He chose to stay with his brother and he has to get to his brother's home on his own (the state is not transporting him). Likewise he has to get himself to his next meeting with the border authorities.

@cmiles74 I don’t think any of that is really relevant to the market, he is not freed into the US to go where ever he pleases. He’s on an ankle monitor and would be limited on movement regardless of his court stipulation

GPT-5 would not resolve YES yet:

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_68a9d8a0db8c8191a958d24e71596543

@Siebe GPT5 is awful

Not a market participant, but incarcerated requires a prison or similar institution involved so house arrest resolves yes

This resolution seems like a bit of a stretch based on the criteria

@JeromeHPowell You tell em, Powell!

@NicholasWeininger Resolves YES https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/kilmar-abrego-garcia-released-federal-prison-rcna226511

@JaySocrates Considering him to be free with an ankle monitor and being on house arrest is laughable

@Jessef0226 Yeah he's absolutely not "free to move about the country" as the criteria requires, he's stuck at his maryland residence

Creator you were very smart to say "at least one day". I predict Abrego Garcia will be brought back to Maryland not just to his house but some third-party location, and it will take ICE more than a day to track him down.

Would Garcia being out on bond in the US pending trial cause this to resolve YES?

@Robincvgr Yes, it would (AFAICT even that has not happened yet though).

It's jover, with the recent charges he'll be in prison by EOY.

Just your typical “Maryland man” 😂

@Jessef0226 I'm not gonna pretend I expect him to turn out to be a saint, but I also wouldn't trust DoJ claims like this as far as they can be thrown. Think we should see how the courts decide before assuming either way.

@chrisjbillington They did get an indictment from a grand jury, which ups my credence somewhat. (Still far from a conviction or guilty plea, of course.)

@chrisjbillington Is there any evidence or proof the DoJ is fabricating indictments? If anything, I’ve seen only seen evidence verifying these individual claims, nothing refuting them

I would add the “free” stipulation to the title. I think it meaningfully changes the market.

@Sketchy yeah fair, changed

You say "free to move about". If he is returned to America but kept in jail, but given due process, and then deported again, are you resolving YES or NO?

@RobertKennedy Good question. Free means out of jail so your hypothetical would resolve NO. I will edit to clarify.