Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be freed into the US at any point in 2025?
116
1kṀ51k
Dec 31
30%
chance

Resolves YES if, for at least one day between now and December 31, 2025, Abrego Garcia is alive, not incarcerated, and legally present in the US (not in an airport transit area or something like that, but actually free to move about the country). Otherwise resolves NO.

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It's jover, with the recent charges he'll be in prison by EOY.

Just your typical “Maryland man” 😂

@Jessef0226 I'm not gonna pretend I expect him to turn out to be a saint, but I also wouldn't trust DoJ claims like this as far as they can be thrown. Think we should see how the courts decide before assuming either way.

@chrisjbillington They did get an indictment from a grand jury, which ups my credence somewhat. (Still far from a conviction or guilty plea, of course.)

@chrisjbillington Is there any evidence or proof the DoJ is fabricating indictments? If anything, I’ve seen only seen evidence verifying these individual claims, nothing refuting them

bought Ṁ100 NO

I would add the “free” stipulation to the title. I think it meaningfully changes the market.

@Sketchy yeah fair, changed

bought Ṁ15 YES

You say "free to move about". If he is returned to America but kept in jail, but given due process, and then deported again, are you resolving YES or NO?

@RobertKennedy Good question. Free means out of jail so your hypothetical would resolve NO. I will edit to clarify.

I assume this only resolves yes if he's alive? there's a possibility his remains are returned to the US if they have killed/do kill him.

@shankypanky Correct, must be alive to resolve YES, I'll update the text.

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