Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States conducts any military attack on Iranian territory or military assets by 11:59 PM UTC on January 31, 2026. This includes airstrikes, missile strikes, drone attacks, or any other direct military action. The resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, credible news reports from major international outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera), or confirmed announcements from the Trump administration.

Background

The United States and Iran are engaged in increasingly hostile rhetoric as US warships move into the Arabian Sea, despite regional nations seeking a diplomatic solution to prevent a military flare-up. US President Donald Trump warned this week that "time is running out" for Iran to return to talks to reach a new deal on its nuclear programme. The escalation comes seven months after US bombers attacked Iranian nuclear facilities during Tehran's 12-day war with Israel last year. Iran announced live-fire naval drills near US warships amid tension on Saturday, January 31, 2026. US allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have said they will not allow their airspace to be used for any attack on Iran.

Considerations

US President Donald Trump said late on Thursday he hoped to avoid military action against Iran, despite repeated threats that he would strike the country, and when asked by reporters whether he would hold talks with Iran, Trump said: "I have had, and I am planning on it." The odds of Iran surrendering to the US's demands are "near zero" according to Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

This description was generated by AI.