Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on whether former President Joe Biden is alive at the time of the official opening of his physical presidential library or center.

• YES: Joe Biden is biologically alive on the day of the official grand opening, public opening, or dedication ceremony of the permanent, physical Joseph R. Biden Jr. Presidential Library and Museum (or Presidential Center), expected to be located in Delaware.

• NO: Joe Biden is confirmed deceased prior to the official opening or dedication ceremony of the physical facility.

Clarifications:

• "Live to see" is defined strictly as being alive; physical presence at the opening ceremony or cognitive awareness is not required.

• The existence of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) virtual/digital library, administrative office spaces, or temporary records facilities does not count as the opening. The resolution depends on the completion and opening of the main physical museum/library facility built to legacy standards.

• If plans for a physical presidential center are officially and permanently canceled, or if no such physical library is built, the market will resolve to NO upon Joe Biden's death.

• Standard reliable news sources (e.g., AP, Reuters) and official announcements from NARA or the Joe and Jill Biden Foundation will serve as the basis for verification.

Background

In September 2025, former President Joe Biden tapped a 13-person board under the Joe and Jill Biden Foundation, chaired by Rufus Gifford, to begin fundraising and selecting a site for his presidential library in Delaware.

Because presidential libraries require significant private fundraising, architectural design, and construction, they typically take many years to complete. For context, the Barack Obama Presidential Center in Chicago held its grand opening in June 2026, nearly a decade after Obama left office. Given Joe Biden's age (born November 20, 1942), this market tracks whether he will survive the planning and construction timeline of his own physical legacy center.

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