Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Joe Biden has a strictly shorter post-presidency than George Washington. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

• George Washington's post-presidency: March 4, 1797, to December 14, 1799 (exactly 1,015 days).

• Joe Biden's post-presidency: Began at noon on January 20, 2025.

To have a strictly shorter post-presidency than George Washington, Joe Biden must pass away on or before October 31, 2027 (representing 1,014 days or fewer). If Joe Biden is confirmed alive on November 1, 2027 (reaching day 1,015), this market will immediately resolve to NO. If Biden becomes president again before November 1, 2027, this market resolves NO.

Credible media sources (such as the Associated Press, Reuters) or official statements from the Biden family or representatives will serve as the source of truth for the date of death, if applicable.

Background

George Washington served as the first President of the United States from April 30, 1789, to March 4, 1797. Following his retirement to Mount Vernon, he lived for 2 years and 285 days before succumbing to a throat infection on December 14, 1799.

Joe Biden's term as the 46th president ended on January 20, 2025. Historically, the shortest post-presidency of any president who survived their term belongs to James K. Polk, who died 103 days after leaving office.

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