Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump lives to have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

• John Quincy Adams' Lifespan: 29,446 days (born July 11, 1767; died February 23, 1848), which is exactly 80 years and 227 days.

• Donald Trump's Lifespan: Born on June 14, 1946, Trump will have lived 29,447 days—officially surpassing Adams—if he is alive on January 27, 2027.

• Resolution Rule: If Donald Trump is confirmed alive at any point on January 27, 2027 (in his local time zone), this market resolves to YES. If he passes away on or before January 26, 2027, this market resolves to NO.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements, death certificates, or consensus reporting from major reputable news organizations (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or The New York Times).

Background

John Quincy Adams, the 6th U.S. president, lived for 80 years and 227 days. He collapsed on the floor of the House of Representatives on February 21, 1848, and passed away two days later.

Donald Trump, the 45th U.S. president, was born on June 14, 1946. He reached his 80th birthday on June 14, 2026. Because of differences in the distribution of leap years across their respective lifetimes, Trump must survive until January 27, 2027, to officially exceed Adams' exact lifespan in days.

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