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MANIFOLD
Which World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers)
13
Ṁ400Ṁ620
2027
70%
Christopher Luxon - New Zealand
64%
Ulf Kristersson- Sweden
57%
Benjamin Netanyahu- Israel
50%
Javier Milei- Argentina
46%
Giorgia Meloni- Italy
46%
Taneti Maamau- Kiribati
34%
Anthony Albanese- Australia
34%
Bongbong Marcos- Philippines
26%
Kim Jong-un- DPRK
25%
Vladimir Putin- Russia
24%
Paul Biya- Cameroon
22%
Mojtaba Khamenei- Iran
21%
Xi Jinping- China
21%
Donald Trump- USA
Resolved
YES
Keir Starmer- UK
Resolved
YES
Harald V- Norway

  • Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a leader leaves office and later returns to office, their answer still resolves YES.

  • Update 2026-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a leader dies while in office, their answer will resolve as N/A.

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In order to prevent people from profiting off a tragedy, and to avoid risk of harm to the politicans, if a candidate dies while in office, it will be resolved as N/A. @traders

I tried to unresolve Harald V to switch him to N/A under these new guidelines, but Manifold doesn't allow creators to undo a resolution. So his 'YES' will stand as an exception, but all future deaths will be N/A.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@TheDucksFan I hope you aren't doing that for trade bonuses, given that the names you initially added did include really old folks and those imminently at risk.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen No. This is purely from an ethical standpoint

@TheDucksFan did you not consider the possibility when you added several geriatrics to the market at the start?

If they leave office and return back to office, it resolves YES.

@mods Is it possible to change this so anyone can add answers?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@NicBergman yes, 3 dots in the top right, see info, and then it’s one of the settings down the bottom

@Jack1 awesome, thank you so much