Resolution criteria

This is a dependent multiple-choice market. Exactly one option will resolve to YES, and the remaining options will resolve to NO.

The market will resolve based on the manner by which Katie Wilson officially leaves the office of Mayor of Seattle:

• Dies in office: Resolves to YES if Katie Wilson passes away while actively serving as the Mayor of Seattle.

• Recalled: Resolves to YES if she is removed from office via a successful recall election.

• Resigns: Resolves to YES if she voluntarily resigns or steps down from the office before her term concludes (including if she resigns to accept another political appointment or office).

• Loses Re-Election: Resolves to YES if she runs for re-election as Mayor of Seattle but loses the election, leaving office at the end of her term.

• Removed by the City Council: Resolves to YES if she is removed from office via an impeachment or removal vote by the Seattle City Council under Article V, Section 10 of the City Charter (or any successor provision).

• Chooses not to run for Re-Election: Resolves to YES if she completes her term as mayor but does not seek re-election to another consecutive term, leaving office at the end of her term.

This market will remain open until Katie Wilson officially leaves the office of Mayor of Seattle. If she serves multiple consecutive terms, the market will remain open until the end of her final term to determine the final method of her departure.

Background

Katie Wilson, a democratic socialist and co-founder of the Transit Riders Union, was elected as the 58th Mayor of Seattle in November 2025, narrowly defeating incumbent Bruce Harrell. She assumed office on January 1, 2026.

By August 2026, her administration faced significant scrutiny following public safety incidents and the controversial dismissal of Seattle Police Chief Shon Barnes. These events culminated in Seattle residents filing a recall petition against her. A King County Civil Superior Court judge is scheduled to hear arguments on August 31, 2026, to determine whether the recall petition meets the state's legal standard for malfeasance to proceed to signature gathering.

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