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MANIFOLD
Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?
34
Ṁ100Ṁ3k
Dec 31
63%
chance
10

Resolves with same on-the-street availability as Waymo in at least one city.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

@NeilWarren @mods creator looks inactive.

https://robotaxitracker.com/?provider=tesla&area=houston
shows that for Houston Tesla has 8 rider vehicles of which 6 are unsupervised. Waymo is shown to have 3.

Does that appear to satisfy
"Resolves with same on-the-street availability as Waymo in at least one city."
seems like this question is for anytime before 2027.

Does this satisfy claim to resolve yes or do we need some more rigorous requirements to resolve yes?

@ChristopherRandles I think that looks like pretty good evidence for YES. @WrongoPhD do you have any reason why this should resolve NO (or reason why we should wait until market close)?

@wasabipesto The data tracker for Houston specifically says of Waymo "Early Data Collection

Waymo data collection is in early stages. Numbers shown as discovered are incomplete and do not reflect the full fleet."

I think using the greyed out number that the data tracker lists as incomplete isn't a fair comparison.

>"on-the-street availability as Waymo"
I assume this indicates it is the driverless taxi service rather than the particular vehicle mattering.

If instead you mean ability to purchase vehicle or both the cybercab vehicle and the driverless taxi service please let us know.