Based on RCP’s two way poll aggregation: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
If he’s doing better against Biden 2 weeks after the announcement than he was at the time of the announcement, resolves YES.
If he’s doing the same or worse, resolves NO.
Apologies for getting to this late; this was one of the markets I bought from @Sketchy. RCP stopped tracking Trump v Biden polls after Biden dropped out, so I think the only sensible way for this market to resolve is N/A.
Yeah like is this N/A or is it Trump vs. Kamala as of July 29th or is it Trump vs. Biden still? I'd have a problem with the lattermost.
I'd be in favor of N/A because you can't really treat the biden approval and the harris approval as the same.