Based on RCP’s two way poll aggregation: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
If he’s doing better against Biden 2 weeks after the announcement than he was at the time of the announcement, resolves YES.
If he’s doing the same or worse, resolves NO.
Related questions
Apologies for getting to this late; this was one of the markets I bought from @Sketchy. RCP stopped tracking Trump v Biden polls after Biden dropped out, so I think the only sensible way for this market to resolve is N/A.
Yeah like is this N/A or is it Trump vs. Kamala as of July 29th or is it Trump vs. Biden still? I'd have a problem with the lattermost.
I'd be in favor of N/A because you can't really treat the biden approval and the harris approval as the same.