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Normally I'd buy a bit more NO since a Direct was confirmed for June, but given that Pikmin 4 is out on July 21, I think there's a non-zero chance of a Pikmin 4 direct early in the month.

I'm not entirely sure why this market is priced so high.

Do Directs that only cover specific games - e.g. the Splatoon direct from last August - count? If that's the case, the last time "will there be a Direct in July" would have resolved as YES would have been 2017 (Splatoon 2 direct). If not, the last time that question would have resolved as YES would be 2014 (if a Nintendo 3DS Direct counts) or never (standard Direct only). Seems like the base rate here, using the strictest definition of "Nintendo Direct," is literally 0%; using the loosest definition, it's 3/11 = 27%.

If any YES bettors have evidence for a Direct scheduled for July - e.g. if there's leaks I'm unaware of - then I'd love to know; otherwise, I'm gonna continue putting mana on NO.

@evergreenemily Directs that cover specific games do count.