Will Manifold Markets allow you to bet in terms of probabilities instead of M$ amounts before 2022-05-01?

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resolved May 2

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NO

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I dunno if this is the best way to make a feature request, but I wanna try it anyway! Right now, when you make a bet, you input a dollar amount to put towards "YES" or "NO". There's also a field describing the implied probability before and after your bet. It seems possible and useful to be able to click on that field and input a probability instead, letting the corresponding dollar amount be calculated automatically (or if you don't have enough money to shift the market to your desired probability, to put all your money towards it). This would be very useful early on when one bet can significantly shift the market but would become less and less useful as a market gets bigger. If the sort of thing I mean is possible before May, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO. Close date updated to 2022-04-24 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm

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I think @IsaacKing is probably right, but I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

@DanielFilan If manifold becomes vastly more popular, it would still have these sorts of smaller markets for hobbies and personal questions, so the feature could still be useful there.

I think this the sort of thing that's slightly useful but not worth the additional UI elements it would involve. It's pretty easy to find the amount of M$ to bet that would set the market to your desired probability within just a few tries, and the more complicated the UI becomes, the more intimidating/confusing it is for new users.

When markets are pleasingly liquid, moving to a significantly different probability should take massive amounts of money, so I don't expect this feature to be used much if implemented.

Agree it would be nice to have a UI option to do this instead of having to manually binary search.

Creating a market is definitely the best way to do a feature request, but on this one, I'm skeptical.

I like this idea. Also the Discord #features-and-bugs channel is a good place to make requests, but honestly I think creating a market around it is even better!

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