They're here! This market can't resolve until 2024, but it's looking pretty certain now.

Related question with different criteria:

Can you elaborate on what you mean by a fixed-payout market?

@Jotto999 Some of Manifold's market types, like YES/NO and numeric, are structured in such as way that you know how much your bet will give you if you're right. Manifold's current multichoice/free response markets aren't like that; your payout depends on how other people bet. That's kind of annoying and something the devs are looking to fix, so this market will resolve YES if it's fixed next year.
(A fixed-payout multichoice market has actually already been implemented and quickly removed, which is why I've made it about a specific date in the future.)