This is an experiment as part of my Manifund project, and also an attempt to figure out how well life-advice markets can work. Can I make my life a well-functioning futarchy? Let's find out!

I've been measuring my moods for the past couple of months using Beeminder. Each datapoint records my mood as follows:

• 2: Unusually good

• 1: Good

• 0: Neutral

• -1: Bad

• -2: Unusually bad

(Note that my mood is recorded as a comment, not the data value - I don't need more incentive to feel better! The Beeminder aspect is just to make sure I record it semi-regularly. My phone prompts me to enter my mood every few hours, too.)

This allows me to see what my average mood is over any time period (albeit with a relatively low resolution).

So far, the average has stayed consistently between 0 and 1 (tending to hover between 0.1 and 0.3), meaning that it can map well onto a binary market.

Each answer will resolve to either my average mood over January (if I do it), or N/A (if I don't). If my mood averages to a value between 0 and 1, I'll convert it to a percentage; below 0 or above 1 count as NO and YES respectively.

(The answer labelled BASELINE will just resolve to my mood.)

In theory, activities that will improve my mood should be priced higher. In practice, let's see!

Fineprint:

• I regret any inaccuracies that come from failing to record my mood, but if they happen, they happen.

• I may retroactively record my mood if I have a clear memory of when it changed.

• If I'm too unwell to record a mood, that counts as -2.

• I reserve the right to keep the data private (but I'll try to keep you all updated on the current value).

• I might introduce an adjustment to reduce the value of the time I spend sleeping.

Obviously good predictions on this market will require a lot of information, so feel free to ask questions. Consider yourselves my personal crowdsourced life coach!

I'll award at least Ṁ100 for every answer I find useful and Ṁ10 for every comment I find useful.

I might make another market about what I'm actually likely to do, but I'll see if I think it's necessary first.