What will improve my mood in February 2024? [Prizes for good answers/comments!]
Basic
3
Ṁ50
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
N/A
Visiting the uni gym at least 4 times
Resolved
N/A
Getting a haircut before the end of the month
Resolved
N/A
Spending more time in nature
Resolved
N/A
Joining an axe-throwing club
Resolved
N/A
Making a different market with another wellbeing measure
Resolved
31%
BASELINE
Resolved
31%
Going on holiday

I've been measuring my moods for the past couple of months using Beeminder. Each datapoint records my mood as follows:

  • 2: Unusually good

  • 1: Good

  • 0: Neutral

  • -1: Bad

  • -2: Unusually bad

(Note that my mood is recorded as a comment, not the data value - I don't need more incentive to feel better! The Beeminder aspect is just to make sure I record it semi-regularly. My phone prompts me to enter my mood every few hours, too.)

This allows me to see what my average mood is over any time period (albeit with a relatively low resolution).

So far, the average has stayed consistently between 0 and 1 (tending to hover between 0.1 and 0.3), meaning that it can map well onto a binary market.

Each answer will resolve to either my average mood over February (if I do it), or N/A (if I don't). If my mood averages to a value between 0 and 1, I'll convert it to a percentage; below 0 or above 1 count as NO and YES respectively.

(The answer labelled BASELINE will just resolve to my mood.)

In theory, activities that will improve my mood should be priced higher. In practice, let's see!


This month I'll be moving into university accommodation in the Auckland CBD, which will also put me much closer to my uni desk (which I currently rarely sit at). I'll also be visiting Wellington with friends and attending my friends' wedding.


Fineprint:

  • I regret any inaccuracies that come from failing to record my mood, but if they happen, they happen.

  • I may retroactively record my mood if I have a clear memory of when it changed.

  • If I'm too unwell to record a mood, that counts as -2.

  • I reserve the right to keep the data private (but I'll try to keep you all updated on the current value).

  • I might introduce an adjustment to reduce the value of the time I spend sleeping.

Obviously good predictions on this market will require a lot of information, so feel free to ask questions. Consider yourselves my personal crowdsourced life coach!

I'll award at least Ṁ100 for every answer I find useful and Ṁ10 for every comment I find useful.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
Going on holiday

To be clear, I did this so it should be the same as BASELINE.

bought Ṁ1 Going on holiday YES

@NcyRocks have you done anything else?

@Bayesian Not from this list.

Halfway through Feb, the average is about 0.49.

@NcyRocks This is a huge increase over January

a) Congratulations

b) I’m curious what the average is excluding holiday days.

@TheoSpears Probably still up from last month - I’ve noticed I’m happier now that I’ve moved back into the city.

@TheoSpears The average starting the day after I got back is ~0.37.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules