Will this or new accusations against Elon Musk be corroborated (1 accuser + 1 corroborator) in a credible news outlet before 2023?

Ṁ1.9K

Ṁ240

resolved Jan 12

Resolved

ALL

- The current accusation requires another witness' statement to be published in a credible news outlet (perhaps anonymously) - Any new accusation requires 2 statements and to be published in a credible news outlet - credible news outlet is judged by Nathan, but is one that most users would trust Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm May 20, 10:03pm: The accusation in question: https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-paid-250000-to-a-flight-attendant-who-accused-elon-musk-of-sexual-misconduct-2022-5?r=US&IR=T Which Elon Musk has publically denied https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527496917579612161

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ63
2		Ṁ26
3		Ṁ19
4		Ṁ11
5		Ṁ6

19 Comments

30 Holders

249 Trades

Sort by:

I think it's likely that accusations against Musk are corroborated, but I don't think it will happen in the next 2 months.

predicted NO

I am strongly considering resolving yes on him sleeping with one of his staff. In most companies that would be a firable offence. What do we think?

predicted NO

@NathanYoung assuming you're talking about the Neuralink thing, I don't know that that counts as an "accusation".

@NathanYoung Wait, is there a newish piece of news?

predicted NO

@NathanYoung fwiw I would consider that a dishonorable resolution (if you're talking about the Neuralink thing). As unethical and/or ill advised as it may have been, a (by all reports consensual) relationship with a subordinate is not the kind of thing most people would consider an "accusation" of sexual assault.

predicted NO

@MattP That’s why i asked. i currently agree and won’t resolve, but am closer to than you. in many orgs sleeping with reports would be an HR matter. Note that my twitter agrees with you though it’s split https://twitter.com/nathanpmyoung/status/1554931352176312323?s=21&t=sjcf2d2b33mXkBjqluCavQ

predicted NO

@NathanYoung I don't disagree with you that it is an "HR matter" - I'm just making a distinction between the catagory of HR matters and that of accusations of sexual assault. All squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares.

predicted NO

@MattP Sure, but a teacher sleeping with a student is just sexual harassment right? And Clinton sleeping with Lewinsky was deeply cruel to her in hindsight? I wasn’t sure, hence why i asked, but i’m not sure it’s as cut and dried as you say. if she accused him of bad behaviour with another witness, this would be pretty trivially YES, right?

predicted NO

@mattP I guess the question is meant to get at sexual misconduct. I think it is probably sexual misconduct to sleep with your reports. I acknowledge it doesn’t trigger resolution, but i’m thinking whether it should. The fact that the woman involved seems happy is important

predicted NO

@NathanYoung to me, the core of "honorable resolution" goes to what a plain reading of a question's title, with clarification in the description (preferably early in the question's lifespan) would imply. I don't think a plain reading of the question "will new accusations about Elon be corroborated?" includes the Neuralink situation, because we don't typically talk about "accusations" when talking about consensual relationships. The teacher example isn't really an applicable analogy, because we say as a society that is always sexual assault due to minors not being able to consent. If the question title had been "will other sexual misconduct by Elon be revealed?" I think it'd be more of a question. But the title speaks of "accusations", not just sexual misconduct. *shrug*

sold Ṁ25 of NO

Just refreshed my memory on the details of the Neuralink story - yeah, she didn't "accuse" him of anything that I could find. A bunch of outlets found out they had twins together because they looked at a court filing the two made about changing the names of the twins. Question wording matters. *shrug*

predicted NO

Yeah I guess. I think I'm more interested in how to word a future question that catches wrongdoing and only wrongdoing. Are you and me good?

predicted NO

I'd find NYT, guardian, Wapo credible. I doubt I'd find Breitbart/the canary. Do you think CNN and FOX are credible on this?

Can you give some examples of news outlets you would find clearly credible, and some that you'd find just barely credible?

(And some you'd find just barely not credible?)

"Credible news outlet" (this thing does not exist)

predicted NO

any specific accusation must have at least 2 accounts in support of it both punished in credible outlets. 2 seperate accusations can't have 1 each.

Clarify - are you talking about 2 witnesses to the *same* event or about another witness to a different event (as often happens, when multiple people accuse one person of similar conduct).