Will this or new accusations against Elon Musk be corroborated (1 accuser + 1 corroborator) in a credible news outlet before 2023?
38
Ṁ240Ṁ1.9kresolved Jan 12
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
- The current accusation requires another witness' statement to be published in a credible news outlet (perhaps anonymously)
- Any new accusation requires 2 statements and to be published in a credible news outlet
- credible news outlet is judged by Nathan, but is one that most users would trust
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm
May 20, 10:03pm: The accusation in question: https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-paid-250000-to-a-flight-attendant-who-accused-elon-musk-of-sexual-misconduct-2022-5?r=US&IR=T
Which Elon Musk has publically denied https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527496917579612161
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ63 | |
| 2 | Ṁ26 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
People are also trading
Will an ex-lover of Elon Musk embroil him in a public sex scandal before the end of 2028?
39% chance
Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?
17% chance
Rapprochement between Elon Musk and establishment media before 2030?
34% chance
Will I be credibly accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment before 2028?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk's accusation against Substack turn out to be true?
21% chance
Will Elon Musk be found personally guilty of a crime in the United States before the end of 2028?
25% chance
Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?
50% chance
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?
30% chance
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?
29% chance
Will Barron Trump be accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by more than 2 people by 2030?
12% chance
Sort by:
@NathanYoung assuming you're talking about the Neuralink thing, I don't know that that counts as an "accusation".
@NathanYoung fwiw I would consider that a dishonorable resolution (if you're talking about the Neuralink thing). As unethical and/or ill advised as it may have been, a (by all reports consensual) relationship with a subordinate is not the kind of thing most people would consider an "accusation" of sexual assault.
@MattP That’s why i asked. i currently agree and won’t resolve, but am closer to than you. in many orgs sleeping with reports would be an HR matter. Note that my twitter agrees with you though it’s split https://twitter.com/nathanpmyoung/status/1554931352176312323?s=21&t=sjcf2d2b33mXkBjqluCavQ
@NathanYoung I don't disagree with you that it is an "HR matter" - I'm just making a distinction between the catagory of HR matters and that of accusations of sexual assault. All squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares.
@MattP Sure, but a teacher sleeping with a student is just sexual harassment right? And Clinton sleeping with Lewinsky was deeply cruel to her in hindsight? I wasn’t sure, hence why i asked, but i’m not sure it’s as cut and dried as you say. if she accused him of bad behaviour with another witness, this would be pretty trivially YES, right?
@mattP I guess the question is meant to get at sexual misconduct. I think it is probably sexual misconduct to sleep with your reports. I acknowledge it doesn’t trigger resolution, but i’m thinking whether it should. The fact that the woman involved seems happy is important
@NathanYoung to me, the core of "honorable resolution" goes to what a plain reading of a question's title, with clarification in the description (preferably early in the question's lifespan) would imply. I don't think a plain reading of the question "will new accusations about Elon be corroborated?" includes the Neuralink situation, because we don't typically talk about "accusations" when talking about consensual relationships. The teacher example isn't really an applicable analogy, because we say as a society that is always sexual assault due to minors not being able to consent.
If the question title had been "will other sexual misconduct by Elon be revealed?" I think it'd be more of a question. But the title speaks of "accusations", not just sexual misconduct. *shrug*
Just refreshed my memory on the details of the Neuralink story - yeah, she didn't "accuse" him of anything that I could find. A bunch of outlets found out they had twins together because they looked at a court filing the two made about changing the names of the twins. Question wording matters. *shrug*
The accusation in question: https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-paid-250000-to-a-flight-attendant-who-accused-elon-musk-of-sexual-misconduct-2022-5?r=US&IR=T
Which Elon Musk has publically denied https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527496917579612161
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an ex-lover of Elon Musk embroil him in a public sex scandal before the end of 2028?
39% chance
Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?
17% chance
Rapprochement between Elon Musk and establishment media before 2030?
34% chance
Will I be credibly accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment before 2028?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk's accusation against Substack turn out to be true?
21% chance
Will Elon Musk be found personally guilty of a crime in the United States before the end of 2028?
25% chance
Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?
50% chance
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?
30% chance
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?
29% chance
Will Barron Trump be accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by more than 2 people by 2030?
12% chance