Will Starship conduct a manned launch before 2025?
35
119
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2025
2%
chance

People have to be on it launching from earth.

Apr 23, 10:43pm: Will Starship conduct a manned flight before 2025? → Will Starship conduct a manned launch before 2025?

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sold Ṁ22 of YES

The operational history thus far does not inspire confidence

If Starship is launched unmanned, but then docked to by a dragon or something, putting actual people in the Starship, does that count? Starship would be doing a "manned flight", but without a manned launch or landing. Would it still count if Starship does no big propulsion at all while there's people on it, just staying in LEO like a space station?

predicts YES

@Mqrius I would think it should count

predicts YES

@ZZZZZZ I don't think this should count. I understand how you can argue that it does, but it doesn't feel in the spirit of the question

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes it's simply a different question if it counts vs if it isn't. Both are interesting, but the distinction matters. @NathanpmYoung ?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I see @NathanpmYoung changed the market description to clarify this distinction. I don't think Manifold gave me a notification 🤔

Anyway, that changes things a lot, so now I'm predicting No.

@Mqrius Sorry I should have commented