NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
closes Jan 1, 2026
Will, on average, more than 40% of people say the Monarchy is good for the UK, across 2025?
78%
chance

The current % is about 55%

According to the average of this tracker in 2025, or if it isn't running, a similar one, shifted so that the average of 2020-2022 was 55% in favour (to set a clear baseline)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/is-the-monarchy-good-or-bad-for-britain

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cos avatar
cos
is predicting NO at 79%

This is wayyy overpriced. The Queen kept a steady ~55% approval rating over the past several years, right in line with the steady ~55% saying that the monarchy is good for Britain. King Charles, on the other hand, has hovered steadfastly around ~40% and will likely lose his present little single-digit upswing as sympathy for the loss of his mother wanes.

What Did The Public Really Think of the Queen and Prince Charles in the 1990s?

Between Diana’s death and her funeral, Ipsos Mori carried out a poll on behalf of ABC news which found that 57% of British people had a favorable opinion of the Queen and 40% of Prince Charles.

Princess Diana More Popular Than King Charles in U.K. Polls

Princess Diana is still more popular than King Charles III in Britain 25 years after her death, including among young people who did not directly experience her lifetime.

The former Princess of Wales is liked by 72 percent of people and disliked by 19 percent, giving her a net approval of +53.

Charles was liked by 67 percent and disliked by 24 percent of U.K. adults, giving him a net rating of +43, according to data from YouGov.

cos avatar
cos
bought Ṁ0 of NO

I'm pricing this market somewhere in the ~40% to ~55% range without temporal discounting, and somewhere in the ~35% to ~50% range after accounting for the discount rate.