Will Nonlinear exist in 2030?
Plus
31
á¹€23082030
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The umbrella org of stuff like this:
https://www.super-linear.org
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@ElliotDavies Good point. I’d expect them to spin off and try something else - Kat has switched up what she’s done quite often. I expect the current drama to have done enough reputational damage that’d the org would shut down/spin off into something else.
@Hedgehog The author posted a comment linking to a forum post (on the EA forum, which is pretty influental) alleging that Nonlinear cofounders behaved unethically towards their former employees. I think the market is anticipating that Nonlinear will collapse because of the allegations made in the post.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?
12% chance
Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?
29% chance
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?
48% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
31% chance
Will anyone create an infinite slide before 2030?
47% chance
What decade will be considered the decade of the most rapid technological progress in 2040 by Manifold?
[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
56% chance
Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?
47% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
41% chance
Will there be another E3 before 2030?
25% chance