Will Nonlinear exist in 2030?

I'm surprised this market hasn't updated in light that they've spent a month writing a rebuttal. Clearly they are stubborn, and there's not much you can do about stubborn (perhaps a lawsuit?).

@ElliotDavies Or spent a month saying that they will write a rebuttal? I didn't see one yet.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

What exactly does it mean for nonlinear to stop existing?

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Think this is far too low. They are likely able to be self-sufficent financialy for some time, and they have a track record of being particularly stubborn. I'd give them >15% of "existing", even if they don't achieve very much

predicts NO

@ElliotDavies Good point. I’d expect them to spin off and try something else - Kat has switched up what she’s done quite often. I expect the current drama to have done enough reputational damage that’d the org would shut down/spin off into something else.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/32LMQsjEMm6NK2GTH/sharing-information-about-nonlinear

predicts YES

What if the org is mostly wound down but they still release the podcasT?

Is there any specific/recent reason to be so pessimistic, or is this just rather base rate for small experimental nonprofits?

@Hedgehog The author posted a comment linking to a forum post (on the EA forum, which is pretty influental) alleging that Nonlinear cofounders behaved unethically towards their former employees. I think the market is anticipating that Nonlinear will collapse because of the allegations made in the post.