Will Nonlinear exist in 2030?
31
2.3k
2030
36%
chance

The umbrella org of stuff like this:

https://www.super-linear.org

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predicts YES

Is there any reason this market isn't at 50%? Stubborness + Unilaterialst-curse all but guarantees their existence

I'm surprised this market hasn't updated in light that they've spent a month writing a rebuttal. Clearly they are stubborn, and there's not much you can do about stubborn (perhaps a lawsuit?).

@ElliotDavies Or spent a month saying that they will write a rebuttal? I didn't see one yet.

What exactly does it mean for nonlinear to stop existing?

Think this is far too low. They are likely able to be self-sufficent financialy for some time, and they have a track record of being particularly stubborn. I'd give them >15% of "existing", even if they don't achieve very much

predicts NO

@ElliotDavies Good point. I’d expect them to spin off and try something else - Kat has switched up what she’s done quite often. I expect the current drama to have done enough reputational damage that’d the org would shut down/spin off into something else.

predicts YES

What if the org is mostly wound down but they still release the podcasT?

Is there any specific/recent reason to be so pessimistic, or is this just rather base rate for small experimental nonprofits?

@Hedgehog The author posted a comment linking to a forum post (on the EA forum, which is pretty influental) alleging that Nonlinear cofounders behaved unethically towards their former employees. I think the market is anticipating that Nonlinear will collapse because of the allegations made in the post.

@Trifalcon The question was created 8 months ago.

You're welcome

Do you mind sharing a link explaining what Nonlinear is?