Will Boris Johnson leave office before Feb 1st 2022? | Manifold

Will Boris Johnson leave office before Feb 1st 2022?

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He'll hang on longer than that!

Relevant tags: #shortterm #UK #politics #boris #borisjohnson

That's fair! See e.g. https://www.npr.org/2022/01/20/1074320720/u-k-conservatives-may-oust-boris-johnson My perception might be tinged by US presidents (out of the 46, only Nixon has been ousted), but perhaps the UK prime ministership has much higher churn

We are in the middle of the process to have a vote and a huge national scandal.

25% in any given year; so ~2% month to month, or <1% in 10 days. So we'd need factors that make it 50x more likely for Johnson to leave by feb

50% seems incredibly high! The base rate of an elected head of state leaving before their term-end I would ballpark at 25% if not lower.

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