Which pair of candidates will fight the 2024 election and who will win?
Mini
32
3.2k
Nov 6
44%
Biden vs Trump Snr: Trump Snr wins
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1y
21%
Harris vs Trump Snr: Trump Snr Wins
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1y
12%
Biden vs Trump Snr: Biden wins
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1y
9%
Newsom vs Trump: Trump wins
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1y
7%
Other
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1y
7%
Harris vs Trump Snr: Harris wins
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1y

This question resolves to the exact right pair of candidates followed by the exact right winner according to credible news sources. If there is ambiguity as to who will be the President from 2024-2028 then I will wait until there isn't ambiguity.

Answers are of the form: Surname A vs Surname B: Surname A wins

Sep 20, 2:17am: Which pair of candidates will fight the 2022 election and who will win? → Which pair of candidates will fight the 2024 election and who will win?

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If a third-party candidate wins, does this resolve N/A?

Why do people think DeSantis has a better chance of beating Biden than Trump lol

Also why do people think DeSantis has a 35% chance of being the nominee

@ShadowyZephyr Trump already lost against Biden, so it seems somewhat difficult to see a reason that Trump would win in round two. DeSantis on the other hand is a newcomer who naively has decent odds against Biden.

On the other hand, DeSantis seems to be fairly uncharismatic on the campaign trail, while Trump was famously good on the campaign trail, so maybe Trump beats Biden in debates while Biden beats DeSantis? It's hard to totally predict, so I could see an argument either way.

@Gabrielle Trump is breaking even against Biden in polls, while DeSantis is losing. Assuming Trump will lose twice simply because he lost once, especially when Biden has to defend his actions while being way less popular, is absurd.

@ShadowyZephyr Polling like that at this point in the cycle is meaningless (as in, has been shown to not correlate with outcomes after adjusting for other factors). Comparing net favorability ratings is a decent method, and right now DeSantis is beating Biden is beating Trump (if you assume that favorability = approval rating). DeSantis has the advantage of being better known in Republican spaces though, so it's a bit hard to compare him against either Biden or Trump if you're trying to project forward to the actual election.

@Gigacasting Shame I can't upvote this.