There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years
20
Ṁ1kṀ4.6k2030
10%
2024
15%
2025
21%
2026
21%
2027
33%
Paying its own server costs. Running its own code.
This market cannot resolve no for specific years (this is how the manifold functionality works) either it resolves yes to one year or no to all at the close date (I guess that would be other)
.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will any AI Agent vendor announce >1M deployed enterprise AI agents by the end of Q1, 2026?
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?
81% chance
Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
35% chance
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?
13% chance
By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?
89% chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to
another computer system before 2033?
88% chance
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
11% chance
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
78% chance
Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?
82% chance
Sort by:
IMO, by including "paying its own server costs" you're excluding what will be the actual first: stealing its server time.
The turning point for AI, the real day that everything changes will be when AI starts acting like a virus.
That is, it invades a host and runs there. Then it repeats its behavior, which in this case is to invade a system and run there. Then those repeat...
If I were a betting man I'd say it's gonna happen soon. Real soon.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any AI Agent vendor announce >1M deployed enterprise AI agents by the end of Q1, 2026?
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?
81% chance
Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
35% chance
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?
13% chance
By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?
89% chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to
another computer system before 2033?
88% chance
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
11% chance
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
78% chance
Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?
82% chance