Resolves to my credence. 10% chance to resolve each new year.
1,000
3.00“Uganda gave $400/person to thousands of young people, to help them start skilled trades. Four years on, an experimental evaluation found grants raised earnings by 38% (Blattman, Fiala, Martinez 2014). We return after 9 years to find these start-up grants raised earnings and consumption temporarily only. Grantees’ investment leveled off; controls eventually increased their incomes through business and casual labor; and so both groups converged in employment, earnings, and consumption. Grants had lasting impacts on assets, skilled work, and possibly child health, but had little effect on mortality, fertility, health or education.” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3223028
@DismalScientist Eg. this paper finds there is a threshold above which people can get out of the poverty trap https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29340/w29340.pdf
@DismalScientist “Peter Coy’s New York Times newsletter “Do handouts work?” covers the research on unconditional cash transfers and interviews Berk. “He has his doubts about the long-term effectiveness of cash transfers, whether unconditional or conditional. “The short-term positive effects on a multitude of outcomes can dissipate after the cessation of transfers,” he and his co-authors wrote in their 2021 assessment. In a video call, Özler said advocates of unconditional cash transfers once hoped that when people got the money they needed, all their other problems would be solved. That hasn’t been the case, he said. If you want kids to be better educated, for example, the most effective way is to offer aid that’s conditioned on making sure they’re in school, not just hand out money. He recommends layering some strings-attached aid to achieve particular social objectives on top of some no-strings-attached aid as a safety net for the poorest of the poor.”” https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/weekly-links-february-9-cash-gender-and-career-advice-school-based-internet-being
