On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year
13
34
1k
2025
81%
chance

Resolves to my credence. 10% chance to resolve each new year.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ80 of NO

“Uganda gave $400/person to thousands of young people, to help them start skilled trades. Four years on, an experimental evaluation found grants raised earnings by 38% (Blattman, Fiala, Martinez 2014). We return after 9 years to find these start-up grants raised earnings and consumption temporarily only. Grantees’ investment leveled off; controls eventually increased their incomes through business and casual labor; and so both groups converged in employment, earnings, and consumption. Grants had lasting impacts on assets, skilled work, and possibly child health, but had little effect on mortality, fertility, health or education.” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3223028

predicts NO

@DismalScientist Though probably very dependent on size of the transfer/context

predicts NO

@DismalScientist Eg. this paper finds there is a threshold above which people can get out of the poverty trap https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29340/w29340.pdf

predicts NO

@DismalScientist “Peter Coy’s New York Times newsletter “Do handouts work?” covers the research on unconditional cash transfers and interviews Berk. “He has his doubts about the long-term effectiveness of cash transfers, whether unconditional or conditional. “The short-term positive effects on a multitude of outcomes can dissipate after the cessation of transfers,” he and his co-authors wrote in their 2021 assessment. In a video call, Özler said advocates of unconditional cash transfers once hoped that when people got the money they needed, all their other problems would be solved. That hasn’t been the case, he said. If you want kids to be better educated, for example, the most effective way is to offer aid that’s conditioned on making sure they’re in school, not just hand out money. He recommends layering some strings-attached aid to achieve particular social objectives on top of some no-strings-attached aid as a safety net for the poorest of the poor.”” https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/weekly-links-february-9-cash-gender-and-career-advice-school-based-internet-being

bought Ṁ10 of NO

depends on inflation

On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition