42% chance. If enacted, the bill HB649 is set to take effect on 2026.01.01. This is the absolute latest for resolution of this market. I will resolve the market sooner than 2026.01.01 according to these criteria: IF HB649 becomes law (incl. by veto override) AND as such removes the requirement for physical safety inspections and on-board diagnostic tests for passenger vehicles, YES ELIF the budget or any other bills include the text of HB649 AND as such remove the requirement for physical safety inspections and on-board diagnostic tests for passenger vehicles AND becomes law, YES ELIF an amendment is proposed, passed, AND becomes law that changes HB649 to NOT remove the requirement for physical safety inspections and on-board diagnostic tests for passenger vehicles, NO ELSE HB649 is retained by the legislature in any way or dropped for any reason, including and not limited to interim study or technical error AND/OR if the only avenue by which the bill could advance is by rules committee actions, NO As of 2025.03.03, the house's proposed budget already includes the text from HB649, but will likely be amended and scrutinized. A new budget will probably (.825+)? become law on or by June 30th. The latest senate calendar lists Thursday, June 26, 2025 as the deadline to act on Committee of Conference Reports. COCs can make substantive changes to bills, so if HB649 is stuck being processed by COC, it'll probably be resolved on or by June 30th. My base rate for any proposed bill's likelihood of becoming law in NH is .294, not considering inclusion in the budget or any other factors. Please let me know how I could improve this market 😊