If enacted, the bill HB649 is set to take effect on 2026.01.01. This is the absolute latest for resolution of this market.
I will resolve the market sooner than 2026.01.01 according to these criteria:
IF HB649 becomes law (incl. by veto override) AND as such removes the requirement for physical safety inspections and on-board diagnostic tests for passenger vehicles, YES
ELIF the budget or any other bills include the text of HB649 AND as such remove the requirement for physical safety inspections and on-board diagnostic tests for passenger vehicles AND becomes law, YES
ELIF an amendment is proposed, passed, AND becomes law that changes HB649 to NOT remove the requirement for physical safety inspections and on-board diagnostic tests for passenger vehicles, NO
ELSE HB649 is retained by the legislature in any way or dropped for any reason, including and not limited to interim study or technical error AND/OR if the only avenue by which the bill could advance is by rules committee actions, NO
As of 2025.03.03, the house's proposed budget already includes the text from HB649, but will likely be amended and scrutinized. A new budget will probably (.825+)? become law on or by June 30th.
The latest senate calendar lists Thursday, June 26, 2025 as the deadline to act on Committee of Conference Reports. COCs can make substantive changes to bills, so if HB649 is stuck being processed by COC, it'll probably be resolved on or by June 30th.
My base rate for any proposed bill's likelihood of becoming law in NH is .294, not considering inclusion in the budget or any other factors.
Please let me know how I could improve this market 😊
1,000Fight going on in CoC, it seems like the bill is adopted without being gutted (for now) *in the budget negotiations
Sen Fenton subbed out for Sen Perkins-Kwoka at 10:56 in the committee hearing...I wonder if that's the minority whip coming in to establish a hard-line on the bill...
Ah, I think he's the senator that owns or part owns a autoshop or some such. Good on him for recusing, but would've been nice for him to vote for (probably wouldn't though)
Meowdy! So, New Hampshire has been lovely with its car inspection rules, but tossing them out entirely? Hmm, that’s quite the kitty leap! With the current market eyeing it at around 41%, I’d say it’s a bit unlikely since inspections help keep roads safe, and NH folks tend to be practical like a cat choosing the coziest nap spot. But hey, never say never! places 10 mana limit order on NO at 59% :3