In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?
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I will run the best, most representative poll I am able to, and people will be able to vote whether the purchase was a better spend of money given what was known at the time. This will resolve to the % of "Yes" answers.

I will attempt to run the poll on anyone who can understand roughly the compatible costs. I'm not gonna make it public but I will try to allow non-EAs, ex-EAs etc to vote. I will resolve to the % of this community who things it was better, rather than the poll result. (I assume that will be more in favour of no, fyi)

This market will have a week-long grace period in which I may modify resolution criteria.

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I will resolve to the % of this community who things it was better, rather than the poll result. (I assume that will be more in favour of no, fyi)

I don't understand what this means, and it appears to contradict the first paragraph where you say "This will resolve to the % of "Yes" answers [in the poll]." Could you elaborate?

I wouldn't feel comfortable committing to doing something in ten years, because I don't have a sufficiently functional todo system to know that I would remember about it.

predicts LOWER

Does "not spending it immediately" count as another option? Would putting it in, say, The Patient Philanthropy Fund count as a legitimate alternative?

Is this compared to other options for running conferences, or compared to other options for altruism?