In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?
11
closes 2032
71
expected

I will run the best, most representative poll I am able to, and people will be able to vote whether the purchase was a better spend of money given what was known at the time. This will resolve to the % of "Yes" answers.

I will attempt to run the poll on anyone who can understand roughly the compatible costs. I'm not gonna make it public but I will try to allow non-EAs, ex-EAs etc to vote. I will resolve to the % of this community who things it was better, rather than the poll result. (I assume that will be more in favour of no, fyi)

This market will have a week-long grace period in which I may modify resolution criteria.

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IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

I will resolve to the % of this community who things it was better, rather than the poll result. (I assume that will be more in favour of no, fyi)

I don't understand what this means, and it appears to contradict the first paragraph where you say "This will resolve to the % of "Yes" answers [in the poll]." Could you elaborate?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace

I wouldn't feel comfortable committing to doing something in ten years, because I don't have a sufficiently functional todo system to know that I would remember about it.

finnhambly avatar
Finn Hamblyis predicting LOWER at 38

Does "not spending it immediately" count as another option? Would putting it in, say, The Patient Philanthropy Fund count as a legitimate alternative?

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

Is this compared to other options for running conferences, or compared to other options for altruism?

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