In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options? | Manifold

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

12

15

Ṁ940

Ṁ450

2032

72

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will run the best, most representative poll I am able to, and people will be able to vote whether the purchase was a better spend of money given what was known at the time. This will resolve to the % of "Yes" answers.

I will attempt to run the poll on anyone who can understand roughly the compatible costs. I'm not gonna make it public but I will try to allow non-EAs, ex-EAs etc to vote. I will resolve to the % of this community who things it was better, rather than the poll result. (I assume that will be more in favour of no, fyi)

This market will have a week-long grace period in which I may modify resolution criteria.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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I will resolve to the % of this community who things it was better, rather than the poll result. (I assume that will be more in favour of no, fyi)

I don't understand what this means, and it appears to contradict the first paragraph where you say "This will resolve to the % of "Yes" answers [in the poll]." Could you elaborate?

I wouldn't feel comfortable committing to doing something in ten years, because I don't have a sufficiently functional todo system to know that I would remember about it.

predicts LOWER

Does "not spending it immediately" count as another option? Would putting it in, say, The Patient Philanthropy Fund count as a legitimate alternative?

Is this compared to other options for running conferences, or compared to other options for altruism?

Related in Change My Mind

Will StrongMinds be a GWWC top charity in 2025?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

See more Change My Mind questions

More related questions

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

In 2024, how confident will I be that the Wytham Abbey purchase was better than what the money would otherwise be used for, given the information that there was at the time?

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Will, on average, more than 40% of people say the Monarchy is good for the UK, across 2025?

Change My Mind questions

Will StrongMinds be a GWWC top charity in 2025?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Related questions

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

In 2024, how confident will I be that the Wytham Abbey purchase was better than what the money would otherwise be used for, given the information that there was at the time?

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will, on average, more than 40% of people say the Monarchy is good for the UK, across 2025?

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?