If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservative party, will they lose seats in the local elections, on net? | Manifold

If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservative party, will they lose seats in the local elections, on net?

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197/200 councils declared and Conservatives lost 401 seats on net so far. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2022/may/05/elections-2022-results-live-local-council-england-scotland-wales

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