S&P 500 breaker before April 30?
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10kṀ360kresolved May 4
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There are a couple economic data releases for April that could theoretically trigger a sell-off, I don't think any of them are terribly likely to do so but 5% seems fair to me. 
@SaviorofPlant since circuit breakers were introduced in 1987 they have been triggered they have been triggered exactly 5 times (4 in march 2020) across about 10,000 trading sessions or 0.05% of days
given the data released are already priced in 5% seems about 20x too high to me
