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MANIFOLD
On midnight tomorrow I will flip a coin 4 times. How many heads will I flip?
23
Ṁ625Ṁ2.4k
resolved Jan 18
100%25%
1
6%
0
38%
2
25%
3
6%
4

How good is manifold at math?

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@NathanDickson what was the exact sequence of flips?

Is it a fair coin. How are you planning to flip the coin, what is your technique

@KevinBurke The coin was fair. There was no technique. Just a ordinary every day coin flip

I am unfortunately out of cash, but 0 and 4 are totally undervalued at 9%… 💰

@OmarB There is a 1/16 chance that a coin will flip 4 heads in a row. There is also a 1/16 chance that it will flip 4 tails in a row. To me, that means they should each be valued at 6.25%

@CarlCinco I see, then on the same reasoning, 1-3 and 3-1 are 1/4 chance and 2-2 is 3/8

@OmarB Yep, that’s the math that I got out of it.

Interesting one! What time zone are you in?

@OmarB Mountain time