[Wheel of Time] Will any Darkfriend character from the books be a non-Darkfriend in the show?
[Wheel of Time] Will any Darkfriend character from the books be a non-Darkfriend in the show?
3
70Ṁ115
2030
73%
chance

This market will resolve YES if any character who was established in the Wheel of Time book series to be a Darkfriend is not similarly established to be a Darkfriend in the Amazon TV series.

Companion market for the opposite condition:

For purposes of this market, two characters are the same if they have the same name (even if a character in the show is clearly integrating parts of some other character's plot arc from the books).

For purposes of this market, being a Darkfriend means saying explicitly "I am a Darkfriend," or similar language such as "I have sworn oaths to the Great Lord bwa ha ha." (Not counting obvious jokes or lies.) Being identified as a Darkfriend by another major evil character also counts. Also, once you start down the Dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny. Any character who has ever been a Darkfriend counts (even if they later regret it and try to redeem themselves, or whatever).

In the absence of a YES resolution, this market is intended to stay open until the end of the series. I will adjust the closing date as needed. If the series is cancelled before completion, I will wait for one year after the official announcement of cancellation, and resolve YES if interviews with people involved in the show clearly indicate an intent for a character to be handled differently from the books.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1y

So... it doesn't look like the show ended up confirming Ingtar as a Darkfriend. Not sure if I should wait and see if they revisit his story in a later season, or if they clarify in interviews, but this is looking quite a bit like a YES to me.

1y

@NLeseul I think Rafe said in an interview that his darkfriend-reveal scene was cut. I'm not sure if that makes him canonically a non-darkfriend in the show or canonically a darkfriend.

1y

@moyamo If there's an interview where someone connected with the show confirms that he was intended to be a Darkfriend, then he counts as a Darkfriend for purposes of this market.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules