Background

Trading volume and participation in prediction markets can vary significantly based on factors like market visibility, topic interest, and time horizon. Historical data shows that markets with clear resolution criteria and straightforward concepts tend to attract more traders.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the total number of unique traders who place at least one trade (either buy or sell) exceeds 39.5 traders before market close. Otherwise, it will resolve NO. The final trader count will be determined by Manifold's trading data.

Considerations

• This is a self-referential market, which means trading activity itself determines the outcome

• The market creates an interesting game theory scenario where traders must predict others' likelihood of participating

• The threshold of 39.5 is effectively 40 traders since fractional traders are not possible

This Market will close at 4 central time in the 17th