Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the 2026 South Dakota Republican primary for Governor. The winner will be determined by the official results published by the South Dakota Secretary of State at https://sdsos.gov/elections-voting/default.aspx.

If a candidate receives more than 35% of the vote in the primary held on June 2, 2026, they are declared the winner. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff election on July 28, 2026. In the event of a runoff, this market will resolve to the winner of that contest.

Background

The 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election features a Republican primary contest with four candidates: incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden, U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson, Speaker of the South Dakota House Jon Hansen, and businessman Toby Doeden.

Larry Rhoden ascended to the governorship in January 2025 following the resignation of Kristi Noem, who left the office to serve as United States Secretary of Homeland Security. South Dakota Republican primary rules require a candidate to receive more than 35% of the vote to secure the nomination; otherwise, a runoff election between the two highest vote-getters occurs.

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