Criteria:
Location: Any city within the European Union (EU)
Event: A single protest or demonstration (not cumulative multi-city totals)
Size: ≥50,000 participants
Must be confirmed by at least one reliable source (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, government/police estimate)
Resolution rules:
Time is evaluated in UTC (June 23, 16:00 UTC to September 27, 2026, 08:00 UTC to December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC)
Each time-period answer resolves YES if at least one qualifying protest occurs within that interval, otherwise NO
Organizer-only estimates are not sufficient unless supported by a credible independent source
If a protest spans multiple days, only the day(s) with ≥50,000 participants counts
If an event occurs exactly on a boundary, it counts toward the earlier interval
Market will close on the 1st of January 2027
Clarifications:
Nationwide or multi-city protests do not count unless a single city independently reaches ≥50,000 participants
The United Kingdom, Serbia, and other non-EU countries do not count
If uncertainty exists, preference is given to lower estimate between credible sources (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, major national media, or official/police estimates)
1,000Examples:
"Prague, 1 February 2026"
A protest took place in Prague, Czech Republic on 1 February 2026, so the single-city and single-day requirements are satisfied. The available Reuters report says the crowd estimate of 80,000–90,000 came from the organizers, while police gave no official estimate. Under the rules, organizer-only estimates are not sufficient unless supported by a credible independent source. Therefore, this event wouldn't have count as a qualifying ≥50,000 protest based on the currently verified evidence.
"Brussels, 12 March 2026"
A protest took place in Brussels, Belgium on 12 March 2026. Reporting describes it as a specific march held that day in Brussels, satisfying the single-city and single-day requirements. Attendance was reported at around 80,000 by police, which is an independent credible estimate and exceeds the 50,000 threshold. Therefore, this would have resolved in YES.
"Sofia, 1 December 2025"
A protest took place in Sofia on the 1st of December 2025. Organizers claimed 90-100k, Reuters reported "tens of thousands", AP attributed 50 thousand, Euronews reported 50k, counts as a qualifying protest under these rules as multiple credible sources mentioned the 50k threshold. It would have resolved in YES.
Resolution: YES for Before 23rd of June
A qualifying protest has occurred in Prague that clearly meets the market criteria.
Multiple credible sources (including Reuters and AP) reported attendance well above the threshold.
Estimates range from 200,000 to 250,000 participants
Per market rules, even the lowest credible estimate (~200,000) exceeds the required ≥50,000 participants
Which also resolves No such protest occurs - to NO
@AIBear Looks very promising, resolving criteria might hurdle it though as the same person called for the 2026 February 1st protest I gave as an example of "NO" resolving below in the comments
@AIBear As long as the source figure doesn't ONLY come from organisers and said local media repeats the organizers number.
Examples:
"Prague, 1 February 2026"
A protest took place in Prague, Czech Republic on 1 February 2026, so the single-city and single-day requirements are satisfied. The available Reuters report says the crowd estimate of 80,000–90,000 came from the organizers, while police gave no official estimate. Under the rules, organizer-only estimates are not sufficient unless supported by a credible independent source. Therefore, this event wouldn't have count as a qualifying ≥50,000 protest based on the currently verified evidence.
"Brussels, 12 March 2026"
A protest took place in Brussels, Belgium on 12 March 2026. Reporting describes it as a specific march held that day in Brussels, satisfying the single-city and single-day requirements. Attendance was reported at around 80,000 by police, which is an independent credible estimate and exceeds the 50,000 threshold. Therefore, this would have resolved in YES.
"Sofia, 1 December 2025"
A protest took place in Sofia on the 1st of December 2025. Organizers claimed 90-100k, Reuters reported "tens of thousands", AP attributed 50 thousand, Euronews reported 50k, counts as a qualifying protest under these rules as multiple credible sources mentioned the 50k threshold. It would have resolved in YES.
@NBonev I will only be trading 10 mana on NO here and won't be placing any other trades until the market resolves fully.
(not applicable anymore)