Criteria:
Location: Any city within the European Union (EU)
Event: A single protest or demonstration (not cumulative multi-city totals)
Size: ≥50,000 participants
Must be confirmed by at least one reliable source (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, government/police estimate)
Resolution rules:
Time is evaluated in UTC (June 23, 16:00 UTC to September 27, 2026, 08:00 UTC to December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC)
Each time-period answer resolves YES if at least one qualifying protest occurs within that interval, otherwise NO
Organizer-only estimates are not sufficient unless supported by a credible independent source
If a protest spans multiple days, only the day(s) with ≥50,000 participants counts
If an event occurs exactly on a boundary, it counts toward the earlier interval
Market will close on the 3rd of January 2027
Clarifications:
Nationwide or multi-city protests do not count unless a single city independently reaches ≥50,000 participants
The United Kingdom, Serbia, and other non-EU countries do not count
If uncertainty exists, preference is given to lower estimate between credible sources (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, major national media, or official/police estimates)
1,000Examples:
"Prague, 1 February 2026"
A protest took place in Prague, Czech Republic on 1 February 2026, so the single-city and single-day requirements are satisfied. The available Reuters report says the crowd estimate of 80,000–90,000 came from the organizers, while police gave no official estimate. Under the rules, organizer-only estimates are not sufficient unless supported by a credible independent source. Therefore, this event wouldn't have count as a qualifying ≥50,000 protest based on the currently verified evidence.
"Brussels, 12 March 2026"
A protest took place in Brussels, Belgium on 12 March 2026. Reporting describes it as a specific march held that day in Brussels, satisfying the single-city and single-day requirements. Attendance was reported at around 80,000 by police, which is an independent credible estimate and exceeds the 50,000 threshold. Therefore, this would have resolved in YES.
"Sofia, 1 December 2025"
A protest took place in Sofia on the 1st of December 2025. Organizers claimed 90-100k, Reuters reported "tens of thousands", AP attributed 50 thousand, Euronews reported 50k, counts as a qualifying protest under these rules as multiple credible sources mentioned the 50k threshold. It would have resolved in YES.
@NBonev I will only be trading 10 mana on NO here and won't be placing any other trades until the market resolves fully.
(not applicable anymore)