Will I still be vegan on October 5th, 2024?

Vegan Moral Philosophy

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Oct 6

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Today is my four-year "vegaversary".

Resolves NO if, on October 5th, 2024, there was any point in the preceding year at which I was not vegan (for the purposes of this market: voluntarily ingested a food despite knowing at the time of consumption that it contained at least one animal-based ingredient, when it was not essential to my survival to do so).

Resolves YES otherwise.

For the purposes of this market, I consider "essential to my survival" to mean at least one of "necessary to prevent the absolute risk of mortality within the next year from increasing by at least 5%" and "a practice which, if abstained from indefinitely, would result in the expected remaining lifespan decreasing by at least 50%", per the evaluation of a qualified medical professional with relevant expertise.

I will answer honestly any questions in the comments pertaining to my veganism, but I reserve the right to disengage from a line of questioning if I regard it as argumentative.

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@NBAP any news?

No changes.

bought Ṁ1 YES at 93%

Potentially relevant information I feel obligated to disclose:

I've started a rather aggressive diet as a New Year's resolution. The goal is to diet for approximately 6 months and lose approximately 20-30 lbs. I have a history of successful dieting (less so weight loss maintenance), and I would assert that my chances of seeing the diet through are significantly higher than the average New Year's resolutioner.

Why is this relevant to your predictions? I'm less than two weeks in and I'm already experiencing very high levels of food focus. I've made an Instagram account solely for the purpose of browsing junk/fast food porn accounts (like this account, for example, SFW). While browsing these accounts, I frequently think, "Yeah, I'd eat that," though always with the implicit understanding that I would eat a vegan version. For example, when I see a cheeseburger, I imagine myself eating the same burger but made with Impossible beef and vegan cheese slices, and I genuinely regard this as non-inferior to the animal-based version. Notably, however, there are some items which I find visually appealing but which I do not regard as having any genuinely non-inferior vegan substitutes (bacon, fried eggs, and non-processed chicken are the examples that most immediately come to mind).

Four years is a long time. Is there any reason to think the upcoming year will be atypical?

I don't anticipate it to be an atypical year, no. If anything, as vegan products get better, I would say it gets easier.

However, thinking about it from a purely mathematical standpoint, if someone had a 15% risk of defection per year, they're more likely than not to last at least four years.

*accidental duplicate