Can anyone beat me in the Pokemon Monotype Gauntlet? [Rock vs Fire round]
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Plus
1
Ṁ200
2026
45%
chance

I am preparing for a match of Pokemon in the Gen 9 National Dex Monotype format. More details can be found in my other market here (note that, unlike the linked market, this market has nothing to do with AI; I'm just looking to evaluate the teams). To this end, I am looking for challengers to pilot the opposing team.

Resolves YES if a challenger beats me in a Bo3 match.

Otherwise, resolves NO at market close time.

Format and rules shamelessly stolen from here:

"Any Manifold user may challenge me to a match. Any given user may make one attempt if they hold 2000 YES shares in this market. The requirement doubles for every attempt after. So they need to hold 2000 shares before making their first attempt, 6000 total shares if they want to make a second attempt, 14000 shares if they want to make a third [attempt], etc. When you are placing a bet, your 'Max payout' is how many shares you are buying.

"[I am] obligated to accept any challenge from someone with enough shares. Also, [I] must be willing to buy NO shares at [80]% if [I] have the mana to spare to allow challengers to take their shot."

Challengers must use this exact team. I will use this exact team. I will coordinate with challengers (either through Manifold or Discord messages) to find a time that is acceptable to both parties. Games will be played through Pokemon Showdown.

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Ṁ1,000
and
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Not if you play this right, your team has so many ways to sweep and so many answers to anything on the rock team. You'd have to get careless and sack a couple mons

@MingCat Never underestimate my ability to throw!

@NBAP Did ~6 games of this with a friend, confirmed my suspicions haha, if you have practice with the team you really can't lose. Lost my first game playing fire and then fire never lost again, we swapped teams after the 4th game. Fire has about 5 ways to sweep, Rock doesn't really have any. Fire pretty much only has to watch out for Kleavor and Arcanine and it has plenty of mons it can flexibly sack to play around those, or switch into Tauros for the intimidate and then set up. If Tyrannitar had EQ or any of the mons had any setup or Cradily was something more useful it'd be different!

@MingCat Interesting. Curious to know what lead matchup(s) you settled on.

@NBAP Fire should mostly play reactively to rock to be wary of its only real threats, but leading with Torkoal is good because getting rocks up helps a bit, removes Glimmora's sash (meaning Heatran can OHKO) and does good chip damage to Kleavor which your opponent will need to switch out a lot because of scarf. You should feel pretty OK about sacking Volcarona or Charizard - they both can be powerful but keeping Cinderace, Heatran, and Tauros as healthy as possible is always more important - you don't want to switch any of those in on a move if you can avoid it.

@MingCat Thanks for the analysis! Well, I'll let you bet it down if you feel like it's unlikely to happen.

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