Will my Instagram profile "pxl_hckr" reach 100 followers in 2023?
92
19k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A

Recently I started a new Instagram account where I share my AI generated images. Will I reach 100 followers before the end of the year?

https://www.instagram.com/pxl_hckr/

Related: /MrLuke255/will-my-instagram-profile-pxlhckr-r

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predicted NO

What’s the criteria that made this resolve as N/A? Shouldn’t it resolve NO?

predicted YES

@MichaelCox Technically, they reached >100 followers before the end of the year, but later, these followers were not considered real

predicted NO

@ms I see, ok thanks, weird edge case sure

94 at time of closing

He's at 93 if anyone wants to turn this into minnowbait! Just follow it and share it with someone you collude with. Historically I've seen markets like this get +10 follows or more in the late hours.

predicted YES

You reached >100 followers. I think this market should resolve to Yes or N/A. Anything else would be incredibly unfair. I read the description, opened the Instagram profile, saw >100 followers, and thought the only reason the market is not at 99.9% was liquidity, so I followed and bet it up

predicted YES

I think I removed most obviously fake accounts. There is no way to tell if any account isn’t fake for sure… Please post any accounts you find suspicious in this thread

predicted NO

@MrLuke255 I’m biased given my sizable NO stake, but you’ve still got a good number of small accounts who seem to fit a bot pattern (eg the grouping of accounts that all have LEGO profile pics, no names just usernames, are private, and almost no followers). If you’re not confident you can catch all the bots I’d recommend an N/A resolution, or perhaps something to the effect of taking the pre-bot follower count, and summing to it any accounts that join post-bot over the final days.

predicted YES

@weissz I think it’s already above 100 even after subtracting accounts you mentioned

predicted YES

Ok, it’s not. 87

@MrLuke255 still think NA is the correct choice here

@strutheo I don't mind an NA that much, but it's worth reiterating in this context that people really shouldn't bet markets up to 97% when fishy things are going on, and if they do, they shouldn't expect an NA to save them, this is bad incentives.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I opened the Instagram profile, saw >100 followers, then bet on Yes up to 97%

predicted YES

I’m going to remove all accounts which look obviously fake from followers. I didn’t want to gain fake followers and I don’t believe it is in the spirit of the market to count them. In best scenario, Manifold would have an option to pause the market or revert it to the previous state when something more or less probable happens which was controversial. Unfortunately it’s not the case. I will leave the resolution to the moderation team

In couple of hours all fake followers should be removed by me.

I suppose they might be a “gift” from the account on which I bought a shoutout, they wanted to show me that it’s “working”.

I’m really sorry it played out like this.

@MrLuke255 maybe just NA it, because idk if i'd be convinced by either YES or NO at this point

predicted YES

I'm also a real follower

I'm a real follower.

You hit 100, but a few of them seem like fake profiles.

predicted YES

@Domer Kinda sucks if this ruins anything bc I was going to really put in the effort to get you over these benchmarks.

predicted NO

@Domer It was 86 when I last checked an hour ago. Rigged😤

@SavioMak i was afriad that’d happen, but i certainly didn’t bet that way

I also plan to buy promotion on a bigger Instagram account, I wonder if this will be more successful than ads

predicted NO

@MrLuke255 do you allow yourself to outright buy bot follows? Or limiting yourself to ads for real ppl to follow you

predicted YES

@TheBayesian FWIW botting social media accounts is against Manifold's community guidelines and may be punishable here. This rule wasn't written with the creator botting their own accounts in mind, but I suspect admins would still frown on it.

predicted NO

@TheBayesian whether bots were outright bought or just not discouraged, there sure are a lot of 'totallyrealname00765326840' accounts with 0-2 posts, close to zero followers and following a bunch of spammy accounts, on the followers list.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

predicted YES

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer also gotta love the AI pfps

@MrLuke255 wow no wonder the follower counts inflated what did you expect

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