Will Max Verstappen win all remaining Formula 1 Grand Prix in 2023?
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แน€610
resolved Sep 17
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NO

He's been on a roll. But surely he won't win every race! Right?

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bought แน€2,000 of NO

@Mqrius

NO

bought แน€5 of YES

He has won 10 out of 12 races so far. He has 10 more to go. Let's call his chances of winning a race 10 in 12, or 0.83. With 10 races that gives a 0.83^10=0.16, so 16% chance of winning all of the other races.

bought แน€12 of YES

(11/13)^9 = 22%

bought แน€35 of YES

(12/14)^8 = 29%

bought แน€68 of NO

on the bookies his odds for the next one are -300 (75% chance of winning). There are 14 races remaining. 0.75^14 = 0.0178. I expect black swans to disrupt his dominance rather more than enhancing it.

predicted NO

Where did you find the odds/how do you calculate the percentage? I'd expect his odds for a single race to be a bit better by now

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