On May 31st the third human case was confirmed, and the second in Michigan. All cases so far have involved farm workers with proximity to infected cattle.
https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year
Market will resolve based on consensus of media reports.
Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
The market will resolve based on the number of confirmed human H5N1 Bird Flu cases as of December 30th, 2023, which is 66
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this report says
first "severe" case
61 US cases overall so far
https://deepnewz.com/health/first-severe-u-s-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-confirmed-louisiana-patient-linked-to-dbef32b3
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p1122-h5n1-bird-flu.html
Current count so far this year seems to be 55 cases. Though that's described as H5 cases here, so H5N1 may be a subset of those?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 The closest thing I could find to a number for H5N1 specifically is this: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/h5n1-response-11152024.html
Twenty-one of these cases were associated with exposure to avian influenza A(H5N1) virus -infected poultry and 30 were associated with exposure to infected dairy cows.
@Moscow25 If 21 of those cases are H5N1, as reported by the CDC linked above, 'Less than 10 cases' can resolve NO
Fourth H5N1 case reported in Colorado. That's only four so far in 2024. And a log gap since number three.
https://deepnewz.com/colorado/colorado-reports-first-human-case-h5n1-bird-flu-2024-fourth-u-s-mild-symptoms
1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.
https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/
@SusanneinFrance But that is a different disease, and this market specifically mentions H5N1 flu. Given that the close contacts had respiratory diseases, and COVID-19 tests were negative, when the antibody tests come back I would wager that some of them had mild H5N2, and that H5N2 is contagious but not severe.
But this market isn't about that.