Will there be any other serious assassination attempt before the election, against any of the President / VP candidates who are under Secret Service protection?
By serious attempt we mean
any shot, explosive, etc that had a realistic chance of success
any successful attempt that causes injury or worse
any serious "foiled" conspiracy that is reported and confirmed by the FBI and Secret Service
The later of course is most tricky. The candidate claiming a conspiracy to assassinate him or her does not count. Only threats of course also do not count.
We will be very stringent with what counts as a foiled attempt.
But for example if the Trump shooter was shot or apprehended before taking a shot at the President, that would surely count. If he was arrested ten miles away from the rally, that may count but would be less clear as we would need to rely on the FBI to explain how severe the threat had been.
This market will resolve after the election.
1,000
3.00@Moscow25 Imo this was a bit fast, just on principle. The whole credible media just sometimes gets things wrong.
I think it's in line with the way manifolders generally resolve markets, but I think the way they resolve markets is wrong, and for high-volume markets it's more important to get it right.
@jacksonpolack ok I'll wait longer next time -- no problem for me; when I've waited to resolve clear markets, others complain and call for mods
I think this one is quite clear, and people just seem to want to argue, complain or make jokes about the former president being assassinated than look at markets like this one rationally
there was not much gray area here, I think
Market for a third attempt here: https://manifold.markets/shoe/will-there-be-a-third-assassination?r=c2hvZQ
According to the reports:
Secret service spotted the suspect with
rifle
scope
GoPro
Secret Service engaged the potential shooter (shot at him four times)
He fled the scene, and was apprehended later [followed to see where he would go?]
The potential shooter was 300-400 yards away from the President "hiding in the shrubbery" when he was spotted.
This is treated as an assassination attempt, with FBI in charge.
AP:
BREAKING: Trump was the subject of an 'apparent assassination attempt' at his Florida golf club, FBI says
https://x.com/AP/status/1835422866155655332
@beaver1 I put an exit order at 98 if you're certain and want to cash me out
I'm not sure why this has to be clarified. If the FBI or Secret Service calls this a foiled assassination attempt then this market will resolve as YES.
If the shooting was unrelated to an assassination attempt on Trump, then the market will continue.
Is there gray area? Sure. Not a whole lot of gray area I think but there is some.
So far there is no statement from the FBI -- it has been delayed -- so we are waiting.
I know that most people understand these things and just bet or don't bet. Responding to the commenters.
Can you clarify the use of the word "serious" in your description. If this event qualifies it would only qualify under "any serious "foiled" conspiracy that is reported and confirmed by the FBI and Secret Service". Thanks.
@Moscow25 why do you have shares in this market? If Iโd realized you were betting in your own market, I wouldnโt have bet, lol
Do you have a contingency plan if the resolution becomes subjective?
@benshindel what are you talking about? And yes please don't bet my markets again. How dare you accuse me.
@Moscow25 what do you mean, what am I talking about?
You have 10,000 yes shares in this market. You shouldn't bet in your own market if there's a chance of a subjective resolution! How dare I accuse you of what? Betting in your own market? Because you have, lol...
@benshindel when you say "lol" I don't know if you are being serious.
Who are you to tell me not to bet in my own markets? I bet in all my markets. I've also lost often in them.
@Moscow25
I can't control what you do but it's bad practice, especially in cases where a subjective resolution is possible, as in this market! You should probably disclose that in the description clearly, like
"I plan to bet in this market, and in case of a subjective resolution, I will defer to Manifold admins." or something!
@benshindel I think most creators bet on their markets sometimes and don't disclose it like that. it might not be the best idea but it's normal. And if it's misresolved you can always appeal that to uninvolved mods who would fix it
@jacksonpolack what would be the point of spending tens of thousands of Mana subsidizing market then not betting them
and this is all play money anyway
that guy seems like a crank -- but I guess that's ok to do here, just attack peoples' integrity with no reason and a "lol" at the end