Which organization will have the top LLM on LMSys on March 1st?
Premium
4
Ṁ6923Mar 2
32%
Google / DeepMind
37%
OpenAI
10%
Anthropic
10%
xAI
5%
Meta / Facebook
6%
Google is currently in the lead with two models at around 1370 ELO.
https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
But OpenAI just announced "o3" model that some are calling AGI.
xAI is also making moves, releasing Grok 2.5 and promising Grok 3
Grok 3 probably won't ship by March but xAI is known to release things when ready
Probably still a battle between Google and OpenAI tho.
Resolution will be midnight US Eastern Time. Once we hit March 1st in New York... the market will be resolved.
NOTE -- we will respect the confidence intervals hence if two orgs tie for first... we will do partial resolution as in previous markets -- in the screenshot above Google and OpenAI are tied for first
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February?
56% chance
Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?
Who will be ahead in the AI/LLM war by the end of 2024?
Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
At the end of 2024, what type of LLM prompt will be the most popularized?
At EOY 2024, who will have the best LLM?
Will MCTS methods by used by any frontier LLM by EOY 2024
25% chance